North Korea is one of the most closed nations to the world. The news about this country are a few for a year, and most of them, about their Lider or Military Forces. And in number they are strong, but in technology and equipment quality? It make sense that President Obama see NK as one of the threats in Asia (the other in China, one of the main allies of the Koreans)? And the Nuclear weapons? His there a military danger to Japan or South Korea? Let´s take a look, starting by the most week military force of the nation: The NK People's Navy.
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| Fig.1 - North Korea Naval Organization. Most important facts are the 2 fleets and "Brown water navy". Atack missions are a job for submarines with a variable number. Probably the 26 diesel submarines are the Romeu Class survivors. |
Second. A costal navy like this has to have AEW or a Aquisition Target and Guidance System that we don´t see in North Korea (there's news about drones and satellites, but...
http://www.space.com/images/i/000/016/482/original/north-korea-rocket-unha-3-satellite.jpg?interpolation=lanczos-none&downsize=660:*). If in the Korean War with convencional ships this type of navy was inoperative, in the XXI century only the submarines force are partially effective (like in the Cheonan Sinking
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ROKS_Cheonan_sinking ). If we look close for example to a Najin class light frigate (image above
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Najin-class_frigate) there's a small radar for each task with no range up to 77 km (no news about Datalink to receive data from other sources). When USA or South Korea use Cruise Missiles or the multi-purpose Harpoon with efective gps guidance, range of 124 km and with correction trajectory from helicopters or other small means, it is a nightmare for a navy like this (were is ECM or EW systems?) . Americans will allways fire first in more then 93 % of the times and with a chance of at least 60% of a direct hit.NKPN if have a 20% hit hipotese is a blast.
A small ship near the shorelines is very dificult to detected. If armed with Kh35 U (in North Korea is Kn-09 with a range of 260 km) the danger is much bigger, but without modern radars, a Datalink and XXI century orientation systems, the ambush tactics close to the coast are less effective (and modern ships do not approach of land. LCS from US Navy are prepared to do so, but the arsenal gives a distance if they want
http://www.naval-technology.com/projects/littoral/). Besides most of missiles in North Korea navy arsenal are P 15 Termit (SS-N -2 Styx and Silkworm, today a obsolent missile). There are informations about Kh28, C602 and C802 but theres's no reable pictures only verbal information and suspected fine and clear photos of some sites or net foruns from Russia (are this real or true?
http://spioenkop.blogspot.pt/2014/06/north-korean-kh-35-anti-ship-missiles.html ).
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Fig. 6 - A Tral Class of light conventional Corvettes.
S o, only a few of the North Korean Navy ships are capable to do ASW at some distance from the coast line. But with no medium naval SAM the air cover it is a mandatory. If we talk about the submarines of South Korea Navy (there's some sources indicate that two of midget submarines from Dolgorae class that had tree build specific for simulate North Korea pairs, are still active https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ships_of_the_Republic_of_Korea_Navy , but let's concentrate on 19 submarines from Chang Bogo and Son Wonil class https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Republic_of_Korea_Navy_ships ), capable of launch the UGM 84L Sub Harpoon with a range 124 km and able to destroy naval and land targets, we see the dificult task of the few and major ships for ASW. Nuclear USA submarines with cruise missiles like the Tomahawk have a range of 1300 km up to 2500 km. An almost impossible task for the North Korean Navy. A long range aviation for ASW and Maritime Patrol could help enough but there's no such type of plane in North Korea arsenal, for now. An 26 could do this type of mission but the few that North Korea have are for transport tasks with basic sensors ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_People%27s_Army_Air_and_Anti-Air_Force ). |
North Korea had long traditions in torpedo boats and small crafts. The upgrade for missile boats was a natural change, but only in half way. More than 217 against a minimum of 24 and possible about 100 today. Unexpected was the amount of hovercrafts and landing crafts in North Korean Navy: more than 100 LCVP /LCPA and 135 LCV. Hovercrafts are an expensive mean and are mechanic speaking, complex to operate. But they are very usefull, specially in Korean peninsula full of islands, some near the coast line but others at distance from the main land. With a fast LCVP/LCV one force could conquer one of South Korea island in minutes or hours, if near the famous 38 th parallel. (
https://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/korean_peninsula_rel_2011.jpg )
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| Fig. 8 - A Yono class midget submarine. |
Analyzing more deep the fleet, mine warfare vessels and auxiliary ships are only 30 of each. Probably some of them are civil (no photos of military vessel's of this types were seen
http://www.asianews.it/files/img/KOREA_(f)_0326_-_Navy.jpg and for example the list of civilian ships are not so big if we think that the country is isoleded from the rest of the world
http://www.alphabetics.info/international/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/india-north-korea-ship.jpg). This means that the North Korean Navy have a very limited capacity to support long actions, in time and space, away from their bases and that poor logistics affect major naval movements. No big amphibious platforms or replenishment ships means that oil, equipment, munitions, etc, are a concern up the military in missions and that the troops movement and the heavy equipment with the air support are dependents from Air Force and Army logistic. Probably civil ships were call in major actions. Again, the Navy have difficulties in several actions, away from coast line and far from their waters. And not forget that are two fleets: west and east, with no comunication between them by sea.
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| Fig. 10 - A Komar class missile boat launch a SS-N-2 Styx |
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| Fig. 11 - Kim Jun Ill visit a Sohung (Komar class made in China) missile boat. See the containers for SS-N-2 Styx are behind the ex. North Korea leader. |
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| Fig. 13 - Type 033 (Romeu Class) of North Korea seen on top of photo near Ming class Submarines, in a Chinese parade. This submarines were send to North Korea by kit and assemble in the country |
More. The North Korean SLBN looks like an R27 Zib (and the program is advance from the old KN 11 h
ttp://www.kcci.com/image/view/-/37863208/medRes/3/-/maxh/460/maxw/620/-/1u93rxz/-/North-Korea-Missile-launch-png.jpg ). Fortunately the warheads are weak and the missiles very experimental with South Korea and Japan recovered some of them from the sea (
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/04/15/article-2309532-194FF6BB000005DC-602_634x495.jpg ). No news about the suposed missile launch by a submarine. Some tv an news support the idea that one or two launch fail from the Simpo class but there's no certain about that. No evidence of MIRV or multi-warhead on North Korean missiles. Even so, with a Space Program (
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Committee_of_Space_Technology ), and some sucessful lauch were made with the Kwangmyongsong 3 united- 3 and Kwangmyongsong 4 (observations satellite ?) in 2012 and 2016, the prospects other purposes like orientation of nuclear missiles or get targets for cruise missiles are hypotheses.
"Were is smoke there's fire", like we say in Portugal and North Korea has made some progress about nuclear balistic missiles from submarines and satellites in space tho give them orientation and targets. Probably a lauch in future from a submarine will be in surface becouse it is much easy, but we don't know what technology North Korea have in this area. One assurance: This nation have great difficulties to build large submarines, and it's needed a modern and big submarine to be a threat to USA or Japan so far away. The problem is South Korea even by the side (South Korea and USA have large ASW and anti-missile systems, but a submarine and a nuclear missile always have some danger, even being old and outdated).
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| Fig. 15- Submarines of North Korean Navy in Nampo. Sang o and Yeonyeo class are midget submarines, used for atack and infiltrations missions. |
The small submarines doesn´t have a great range, are limited in weapons and mission time but near the coast their detection is very difficult. Teams of saboteurs and spies can be dropped easily in South Korea and the prove is that some of them were captured by ROAK forces. Ideal for a brown water navy and that operates within 50 km from exclusion zone, with 46 000 men and 711 ships. True that a vessel from the west fleet could'n visit the east one, but the danger of ROAKS Cheonang be sinking by a midget submarine from Yono or Sang O class puts pression in south navy were the fail in detection could lead to a desaster (there's a possibility of have been 2 submarines and a support ship, in a sea were Us Navy and South Korean Navy were in ASW exercices, to sink Cheonang corvette
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ROKS_Cheonan_sinking ).
Size also means that in some rivers, bays and gulfs, these little submarines could ambush bigger enemies units, with torpedos, mines or saboteus with explosive charges. Probably the substitution of the Romeo Class by Sang -O- it's a matter of tactics, were ocean submarines are deprecated by coastal models, because are more easy to build and better to use in a brown water navy system by North Korea.
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| Fig. 16 - Torpedo boat and missile craft. About 234 of 9 torpedo boats and missile types. |
Conclusion
The Korean People's Navy is the branch of the People Army, Armed Forces of North Korea, and probably the most limited of the North Korean forces, with a defensive role especially of their surface fleet. Ofensive role is a task for submarines and clandestine missions are one of their main task, with Type C infiltration boats or wooden fishing vessels (specially caught in Japan http://www.maritime-executive.com/media/images/ghost%20boat.jpg ), or midget submarines like the Song O class.
It is made to support the Army or make fast operations at maximum range o 50 km from the cost line, with the roof of land SAM, airforce, coastal artillery, EW and Jamming systems
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| Fig.17 - With a Navy of close Range, North Korea operates in range of land based SAM, SSM and Coastal Artillary. |
Even the infiltraded missions are made with midget submarines and special infiltration crafts in the yellow sea but with Japan are North Korea only send "ghost ships", normally fishing boats with saboteurs or a spy crue. Large missiles are often fired against Japan from land but all of them fall in the sea and collected by Japanese Navy (
http://media.therakyatpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/000_Hkg10254318-940x470.jpg ).
East or the yellow sea is much better for a "brown water navy". With lots of islands and a coast full of good places for wide a little torpedo, missile boat or submarine, who can wait by the enemy and fire with some sucess. West is more ocean and it needs a type of more large ship, that North Korea doesn't have and can't produce with a very limitied industrie and with many problems in energy production and fuel resources (NKPN have about 10 large frigates, corvettes and patrol boats. Only tree are not from the 60s and made mostrly in the nation).
Main operations arena are east and against South Korea, with several battles with variable result, and an acurate search give us the assurance: South Korea navy is a lot more powerfull than the North Korean on. Why? Will see above.
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Fig.18 - Comparison between some Asian fleet. China and North Korea have mutch more ships but the other naval nations have much more modern ships.
The losses of a Chamsury Class 357 patrol boat ( http://media.gettyimages.com/photos/the-south-korean-navy-raises-a-bulletridden-naval-patrol-boat-august-picture-id1346339 ) and RoK Cheonan 772 corvette, in about eight clashes between North and South Korea (https://static-secure.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2015/5/8/1431067227887/03cc0296-9ebf-4764-ac56-f22aedac37bb-2060x1236.jpeg ), were exeptions. NKPN lost 2 submarines, 2 infiltration boats and 1 torpedo boat, with much more dead and wondead sailors that South Korean navy. With equal firepower, sensors and much more modern guns, even in a close support confrontation, they make the south win. In a BVR confrontation, a modern tracking and aquisition radar, fire - control, datalink and optical sensores, will make devastating fire over enemy ships. For example, an SSM attack with the Harpoon (NKPN have for example C802 but there's no modern radar for detection an guidance), at 100 km by a South ship will had the acquisition and tracking by a airborne radar and a final way correction by a sensor from an helicopter all with the help of datalink. North doesn't now what is that becouse they have a navy to a close range from the coast, were by North Korea tactics small torpedo and missile boats, cant operate without range umbrella from SAM, electronic war and aircraft roof. Small and low are dificult to detect but not impossible, by modern sensors and satellites (the North only have two of observation in more than five launch attemps), that North Korea doesn't have. Asw is another problem, basically becouse depth charges and rockets are a close range weapons when a UAM Harpoon have a 120km range (sonars are old and fixed). That lives the submarine was the only NKPN ofensive weapon (and yet...).
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A force of midget submarines make sense in Persian Golf, Baltic or Caspian Sea. In the Pacific they have limited use, like the japonese proved in WWII (
http://ww2db.com/other.php?other_id=34). Small, limited range, hard to guide in the ocean, they need a base ship (North Korea probably use civil ships becouse there's no military ones) and they are no hard to sink. The problem is that the Nort Korean alone only can produce in series submarines above 370 tons (Romeu were assembly nin country with pieces from China and Simpo is just one). They use for infiltration saboteurs and military personal, to atack near the cost of main land or an island (Roak Cheonan was sunk near Baengnyeong island by a suppose Sango submarine), or drop mines. But in the Ocean, are not effective and in the Pacific only a much bigger submarine is effective. Whiskey are no longer in use (of four maybe there's one). Romeo are outdated and the only real modern submarine is the Simpo class, made from inspiration of yugoslavian contemporary). Simpo seams a really good class, with torpedos and two missile tubes in the sail (the only balistic missile test from a submarine was made from this class ?
http://fijione.tv/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/South-korea.jpg ).
It will be the industrial capacity of North Korea of build powerfull nuclear warheads, Simpo submarines and a effective missile for a submarine, that will dictade if North Korean nuclear program is a treath to korean peninsula and neighbors like Japan. If so, is a danger for peace and to a nuclear Asian Southeast. If it fails, and nuclear missiles continue in earth and mobil ramps, only with multi-warheads, better sensors, data link and orientation systems, will make North Korea a threat to many nations beyond South Korea. And for now this last scenario is far away. US, China, Japan, etc, can reast (and pray for Simpo class fail or North Korean fail in a mass production of the type).
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| Fig.20 -The ofensive power of NKPN are the submarines. Type 33 are old and were only assemble in the country. Simpo class are the only ocean submarine under development (1 at least), and probably have two tubes for missiles in the sail. The industrial capacity of North Korea produce this type, will in future will dictate if the submarine force will be a Brown Water Navy one or a much more powerfull ocenic navy. |
http://koreadprk.tumblr.com/post/63083329771/kim-jong-un-documentary-succeeding-the-great-work
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| Fig.23 - A torpedo boat from Shershen Class. North Korea have only 3 of this fine crafts in service. |
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| Fig. 27 - A rare photo of Chaho class Rocket Boats.This type of units have a very limited use in a modern war. |
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| Fig.29 - Romeu class submarine goes by a Najin class Frigate and a Sariwon class corvette. The Sang - O (34m) and Sang - O II (39 m) submarines are replacing the old Romeu submergibles. |
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| Fig. 31 - I SILC infiltration craft capture by South Korean Navy. It is frequent that midget submarines and infiltration boats beached or abandoned in the Korean coast. Sometimes all on board are dead. |
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| Fig. 32- A Hainan class conventional patrol boat. The 57 mm (near the depth charges) and the 25 mm chinese guns are wll seen. This class function is a Submarine Chaser, with asw rockets and rack for mines. |
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| Fig.33 - Troops from North Korean Army disembarking from a hovercraft from Kongbang I class. Navy is a branch from the army so doesn't have marines. |
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| Fig. 35 - A 57 mm (twin) gun from a Najin Frigate in a real fire exercice. One of the main missions of the Navy in North Korea is give firepower to support the Army |
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| Fig.36 - A Sang -O - I submarine captured by South Korean Navy stranded near the coast line. All the crue was dead in a colective suicide. |
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| Fig. 38 - The only Krivak frigate that North Korea have. Current status of ship his unknown and satellite images only show an helicopter deck and hangar. |
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| Fig. 39 - A Krivak II class frigate. For years that is like this in North Korea. |
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| Fig. 40 - Perhaps one of the more interesting satellite picture. It seems a Golf II/ Foxtrot (not a wiskey with cruse missiles like in image above). Is this the danger of a nuclear treath by North Korea in submarines. If so, the North Korean Navy gives a big step in brach of the armed forces in NK nation. |
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